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		<title>The Next Bird Flu Pandemic</title>
		<link>http://platopus.wordpress.com/2008/03/31/the-next-bird-flu-pandemic-%e2%80%93-a-chilling-fictitious-scenario/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Mar 2008 08:07:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>platopus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Medicine]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pandemic]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The following is a fictitious scenario  Sixty kilometers north of Boca do Acre, deep in the Amazon rainforest, the headman of a nearby unexplored Indian settlement was returning home after a rare visit to white man’s territory.  He had traveled many miles by dugout canoe and on foot, in order to barter native gold for [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=platopus.wordpress.com&amp;blog=3289046&amp;post=8&amp;subd=platopus&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p align="center"><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"><strong><u>The following is a fictitious scenario</u></strong> </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">Sixty kilometers north of Boca do Acre, deep in the Amazon rainforest, the headman of a nearby unexplored Indian settlement was returning home after a rare visit to white man’s territory.<span>  </span>He had traveled many miles by dugout canoe and on foot, in order to barter native gold for a breeding rooster that would enable them to improve the clan’s flock. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">Before embarking on his homeward journey, Quizo had contracted a strain of H1N1 influenza.<span>  </span>An hour’s march from his village, the precious rooster had sickened and died.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">It succumbed to a highly pathogenic sub-strain of H5N1 bird flu.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">Quizo was mortified at the prospect of reporting this failure to his people, so he gutted and de-feathered the bird; he built a fire and roasted the carcass, charring the outside while the inner flesh remained uncooked.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">He then ate the fowl – and aggravated his existing illness by contracting bird flu.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">Up until that moment there had been limited human-to-human transmission of the virus, and those that had occurred had been in small clusters within a single family.<span>  </span>Transmission between the members had occurred through close personal contact with each other, and had not spread beyond the household.  </span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">However, the one event that terrified scientist’s worldwide, was the occurrence of an antigenic shift in the virus.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">It was remotely possible for this type of shift to occur through the mixing of human influenza A and animal influenza A virus genes … to create a new strain of human influenza.<span>  </span></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">The worse case scenario would happen if the newly mutated sub-form of H5N1 could be spread easily from person-to-person in a sustained manner.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">The virus that mutated in Quizo’s body had aerosol capabilities.<span>  </span>In other words, it could be transmitted through minute droplets of airborne fluid – and it had the potential of causing a global pandemic.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">The last Flu pandemic had occurred in 1918, spreading as far as the Arctic and to remote Pacific islands, despite the absence of modern air travel.<span>  </span>It had been the worst medical holocaust in history, with a mortality rate of somewhere between 3% and 20%.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">It caused the deaths of over 100 million people.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">The difference between then and now was incalculable, ­ for two reasons:<span>  </span>Modern global air travel … and the fact that the human mortality rate from existing strains of H5N1 was in excess of 60%.<span>  </span>However, because of genetic scrambling, the virus was capable of grabbing huge blocks of genetic code from human flu viruses through a process called reassortment.<span>  </span>The antigenic shift that occurred in Quizo’s body produced an entirely new sub-strain of H5N1.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">This particular sub-strain had a potential human infection rate of 74,8%.</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">This meant that over 74% 0f the global population &#8211; almost 5 <span>billion</span> people, were at risk, for two reasons:<span>  </span></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">The human body had no natural defenses against the virus, and there was no effective vaccine available against this new virulent strain. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">If the mortality rate of 60% held, over 2,8 billion people were doomed.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">Mankind would be driven back to the Stone Age. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">Quizo staggered into his village an hour after consuming the chicken.<span>  </span>The following morning, he was coughing and sneezing uncontrollably.<span>  </span>He summoned the medicine man and the concerned tribesmen gathered to watch as the shaman performed his wizardry.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">The headman’s immune system started fighting the pathogens, causing cytokines to signal immune cells, both T-cells and macrophages, causing them to travel to the site of the infection in the lungs.<span>  </span>This triggered an uncontrollable feedback loop, which created a cytokine storm.<span>  </span>This, in turn, made the macrophages accumulate, causing massive hemorrhaging in the lungs and other organs.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">Quizo died seven hours later.<span>  </span>He was either drowned in his own blood, or he succumbed to massive multiple organ failure … or both.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';"></span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">The world was spared by two factors.</span><span style="font-family:'Times New Roman';">Within 24 hours, every living human being in the village was dead … and an untended cooking fire burned the settlement to the ground, wiping out the last visages of the virus.</span></p>
<p style="margin:0;" class="MsoNormal"><font face="Times New Roman">However, the clock was ticking …</font></p>
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		<title>Hello world!</title>
		<link>http://platopus.wordpress.com/2008/03/27/hello-world/</link>
		<comments>http://platopus.wordpress.com/2008/03/27/hello-world/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Mar 2008 03:40:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>platopus</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false"></guid>
		<description><![CDATA[HUMBLE  APOLOGIES &#160; I&#8217;m brand new to the Blogging world, and I have absolutely no idea how to go about it, or even how to format this post (especially the font style), so I could usese all the help I can get. I do know what gets me mad and what pushes my buttons, though [...]<img alt="" border="0" src="http://stats.wordpress.com/b.gif?host=platopus.wordpress.com&amp;blog=3289046&amp;post=1&amp;subd=platopus&amp;ref=&amp;feed=1" width="1" height="1" />]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h1 align="center"><u>HUMBLE  APOLOGIES</u></h1>
<p align="center">&nbsp;</p>
<p align="left">I&#8217;m brand new to the Blogging world, and I have absolutely no idea how to go about it, or even how to format this post (especially the font style), so I could usese all the help I can get.</p>
<p align="left">I do know what gets me mad and what pushes my buttons, though &#8230; so I&#8217;m in the process of composing my first meaningful post, which I hope will generate one (or more) of the following emotions:</p>
<ul>
<li>
<div align="left">Outrage</div>
</li>
<li>
<div align="left">Hate</div>
</li>
<li>
<div align="left">Maybe a giggle</div>
</li>
<li>
<div align="left">Sympathy</div>
</li>
<li>
<div align="left">Hostility</div>
</li>
<li>
<div align="left">Amusement</div>
</li>
<li>
<div align="left">Agreement</div>
</li>
<li>
<div align="left">Disagreement</div>
</li>
<li>
<div align="left">The itch to kick my butt</div>
</li>
<li>
<div align="left">BUT NOT Indifference!</div>
</li>
</ul>
<p align="left">In case you&#8217;re curious, my aim is to write some challenging and though provoking articles that&#8217;ll grab your imagination and make you want to dive right in the deep-end and join me in some lively, kick-ass discussion!</p>
<p align="left">I&#8217;m also going to try to vary the topics as much as possible.  Oh, and another thing, I&#8217;ll answer all of your comments and counter arguments, and I&#8217;ll trade insult for insult as well. so watch out!</p>
<p align="left"> Talk to ya later.</p>
<p><font size="5" color="#0000ff" face="Times New Roman"></font><font size="5" color="#0000ff" face="Times New Roman"></font><font size="5" color="#0000ff" face="Times New Roman"></font><font size="5" color="#0000ff" face="Times New Roman"></p>
<p align="center"><u></u></p>
<p></font></p>
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